The Wounded Eagle
Donald Trump, President 2016-2020
In the U.S presidential election of fall 2020, Joe Biden's Democrats clearly won over incumbent President Donald Trump, both by popular vote (Biden 81 million votes against Trump 74 million votes, a difference of 7 million) and number of electors (306 Democrats against 232 Republicans).
Across the United States, the number of electors in each state is roughly proportional to that state's population.
That being said, it is important to bear in mind that the Constitution of the United States of 1789 provides that it is the Electoral College who ultimately chooses the President of the United States and not the majority obtained in the popular vote. Moreover, let's point out that Electoral College votes of a State usually go to the presidential candidate with the highest number of votes in that State. (2 States, Nebraska and Maine, have chosen an alternative permitted by the Constitution, which allows this choice to be made by district. But the number of the Electoral College of these sparsely populated States has little influence on the final overall result).
For example, all 55 Electoral College in California come from the Democrat Party list, because in that State the majority of the Electorate College voted Democrats. And they are required to vote for the Democrat candidate in the Electoral College vote held about 6 weeks after Election Day on November 3rd. In this case, that vote took place on Monday, December 14, 2020 and confirmed the result of 306 electors to Democrats and 232 to Republicans.
Despite this absolute defeat, incumbent President Donald Trump claimed and still claims that these elections were fraudulent and that he is the ultimate winner. Here are the arguments supporting his supposed victory: Donald Trump disputes the results in 5 key States where Republicans were indeed defeated by very narrow majorities: Arizona (11,000 votes); Georgia (12,000 votes); Wisconsin (19,500 votes); Pennsylvania (88,000 votes) and Michigan (150,000 votes). However, he rules out States where the result was also very close, but favorable to the Republicans. This is the greatest weakness of his argument.
Since the Electorate College in each of these States are required to vote for the party's candidate with the most votes, shifting that vote from Democrats to Republicans in these 5 States would effectively pass the majority of electors from Democrats to Republicans and ensure Donald Trump's victory, despite his very clear defeat by the popular vote of all voters in the country.
To support his thesis, the incumbent President asserts that the votes cast by mail are not legal. He appealed to the Courts of various States to have them dismissed. All Courts of Law having ruled on this matter have rejected his numerous requests, 55 in total, all but one with only a few ballots.
Despite everything, he tried to bring his cause to the Supreme Court of the United States, where 3 of the 9 members were appointed under his presidency. However, the hearing was rejected unanimously for lack of valid arguments. The Supreme Court believes that it has no power over the electoral process, especially since no evidence of fraud has been presented.
But above all, by this decision, the Supreme Court confirmed its independence vis-à-vis the Executive power and an angry President who believed, wrongly, that they should be indebted to him for their appointment. He should have known that the loyalty of the judges of the Supreme Court of the United States goes to the Constitution and not to the President who appointed them.
Despite his setbacks, we are witnessing for the first time in a long time a defeated candidate that does not acknowledge his defeat and opposes the peaceful transfer of the power he holds. He even went so far as to promote a "march" on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, where the Senate and Representatives were meeting to confirm the electoral result.
This march quickly turned into a riot broadcasted live on televisions all over the world. The National Guard had to be called in to restore order.
This intervention seems to have been made without Donald Trump being notified, which some consider as a disavowal by his entourage, or even as a partial application of the 25th amendment to the Constitution which provides for the replacement of the President by the Vice-President in the event of his or her inability to govern.
Unfortunately, this period of uncertainty, from the November 3rd election, could last until January 21, 2021, for 11 weeks, as the United States of America is ruled by a hostile incumbent President with no respect whatsoever for centuries-old traditions that characterize one of the oldest democracies in the world.
To illustrate this unique situation, a President going through this situation is usually called a "lame duck", believing that he no longer has the moral power to take decisions or initiatives involving the country in the long term and above all, inconsistent to the direction of the new administration which will soon take office.
But he still has the legal power to ignore the election results. This is why the term “wounded eagle” would seem more appropriate to me. "Eagle" because he still holds all the powers of his powerful title; "Wounded" because he will inevitably lose them on January 20.
For 11 weeks, the President of the most powerful nation in the world hovers over the planet from the dizzying height of his great powers, thanks to its powerful wings.
But beyond this period, he will have no choice but to die. In the meantime, the world is going through a disturbing period of uncertainty over what will happen next, not only in the United States, but around the world.
As this text went to publication, there are only a few days left before the fateful date. How will this President behave with the inevitable approach of his ousting from the White House? How will this wounded eagle behave, falling from the dizzying heights where it currently hooves towards the brutal shock of harsh reality? Will it make a soft landing or rather a high-speed dive to crash into the planet and cause a gigantic explosion with unforeseeable consequences?
In the modern world, the first characteristic of the system called “democracy” is the election of political leaders by all citizens during a secret ballot held at recurring periods. When the voice of the people rises, the leaders accept its verdict. The main advantage of this system is, first and foremost ,that it allows political leaders to be changed without violence, bloodshed and civil war.
A major asset when one takes a look at the state of disorder and violence in a large number of countries on our planet that do not benefit from such a mechanism. They are often grappling with bitter and ruinous struggles between armed groups in order to "take power".
On the contrary, in an effective and vibrant democracy, following a free vote by universal suffrage, the forfeited concede victory to the winners without losing their rights as free citizens. And the newly elected lead their people in accordance with the laws and principles known to these voters. These laws can only be changed within a well-defined legal framework, although sometimes very different from one democracy to another.
But in the meantime, life goes on without significant disruption. Voters maintain their usual activities, they keep the same job, live in the same places, eat the same food as before, all in a usually peaceful social climate. Ideally, Law enforcement Authorities enforce the laws there, using only the force necessary when public peace and order are disturbed.
In addition, before or after an election, everyone can express themselves freely on the subjects of their choice. This includes political views, even if these conflict with those of their current leaders. And they have complete freedom to peacefully prepare to challenge these leaders during the next election.
Will this tradition continue beyond January 21?
The United States of America was founded as a result of the War of Independence when 13 English colonies in eastern North America won against the British Empire in 1781.
Since then, they have adopted rules of political operation enshrined in a text that became “the Constitution of the United States of America” adopted in 1787 after much debate.
Among other things, the decision-makers of that time were concerned with preventing the reestablishment of an absolute monarchy from which they had just freed themselves. But neither did they want the establishment of a democratic system whose historical models known at that time had proved to be unstable. They therefore put in place new institutions, which they hoped would enable them to avoid these obstacles.
Let's sum up. They established that their new country was to be ruled by a President elected for a four-year term and not by a King. His powers had to be strong enough to lead effectively, but without slipping into the absolutism of the past.
From the start he was forbidden to ennoble any citizen whatsoever and to grant individual privileges. Moreover, although this President would be, among other responsibilities, “Chief of the Armed Forces”, he would need to obtain the assent of a Senate to declare war, to appoint his Council of Ministers, to appoint the judges of the Supreme Court and so on.
This Senate was to be made up of 2 Representatives chosen by the citizens of each of the States every 6 years, regardless of their population. It was a proposed compromise to bring the less populous States that feared all power would be concentrated in the more populous States to the Constitution. Even today, California, with a population of approximately 40 million, elects 2 senators as does Wyoming with less than 600,000 inhabitants.
As for the House of Representatives whose mandate reside in establishing laws, it would be elected for 2 years, and would be proportional to the population of each state based on a census to be held every ten years.
But the most crucial aspect of this new system is precisely in the way the president is chosen. This is where the going gets tough. How do you appoint a qualified President who can have enough powers to be effective, but ensuring on the one hand that he does not become a dictator, and on the other, that he is not part of a group of men who are closely linked and who could then use their influence to defend their personal interests?
They ended up agreeing that this President, as explained above, would be selected by an “Electoral College” appointed by the political leaders of each State and whose number would be in proportion to the population of each of them.
This Electoral College would exist only for this single function and would be dissolved after each election so as to avoid the dependence mentioned above.
Everything was therefore in place for the functioning of the United States of America. And the new Republic of 4 million inhabitants began to move.
But, as I will present in the next Letter, other forces came to pressurize these mechanisms which had never passed the reality test. These forces gave rise, over the course of its 230-year history, to the adoption of 26 Amendments which had a great influence on the development of the United States of America.
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